News like “the US tightens exports of high-end AI chips to China” surfaces again every so often. But how do these controls actually work? Who, using what tools, decides which chip can be sold where?
This piece spells out semiconductor export controls — and talks only about the mechanism, not about right or wrong. First what they are and who administers them, then a breakdown of the three key tools (the Entity List, the FDPR, and license review), and finally how the controls evolved from 2022 to 2026. This is the mechanism-level deep dive of the Chip War gate.
What Are Export Controls?
Export controls means using regulation to restrict the export of specific goods, software, or technology to specific recipients. In semiconductors, the lead actor is the Bureau of Industry and Security, or BIS, under the US Commerce Department.
BIS acts under the Export Administration Regulations (EAR). What it governs ranges from advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to related software and technology. The aim (in the official phrasing) is to restrict these “dual-use” capabilities from flowing to recipients seen as national-security or foreign-policy risks. Put simply, BIS is the checkpoint that decides “which semiconductor capabilities may be exported, to whom, and whether a license must be obtained first.”
Core-Data Snapshot
Below are the key moments in the evolution of export controls, to help you grasp the thread.
| Timing | Event | Nature |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-10 | Controls on advanced computing chips and semiconductor equipment to China take effect | BIS rule |
| 2023-10 | Expanded controls on advanced AI chips and equipment; new notification mechanism added | BIS rule |
| 2024-12 | 24 new equipment categories, HBM controls, 140 Entity List additions | BIS rule |
| 2025-05 | Prior AI diffusion rule rescinded; replacement rule foreshadowed | BIS announcement |
| 2026-01 | Mid-tier chips such as the H200 moved from presumption of denial to case-by-case review | BIS rule |
The Three Key Tools
Export controls sound complicated, but grasp three tools and you’ve got most of it.
The Entity List: BIS names a list of companies or institutions deemed to pose national-security risks. Selling controlled US technology or products to those on the list generally requires a license first, often under a presumption of denial. This is the most direct, name-and-list form of control.
The Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR): ordinary controls govern things “made in the US”; the FDPR widens the scope so that even a foreign-made product, if it is made using certain US technology or software, can also fall under US reach. This lets the US reach chips not made in the US, greatly expanding coverage.
Case-by-case license review: when an export license is applied for, BIS reviews each one individually — it may approve, conditionally approve, or reject, and may also refer it to Defense, Energy, and other agencies for joint review. “Case-by-case review” is individual judgment; it is not automatic clearance.
2022 to 2026: How It Tightened Step by Step
Export controls tightened year by year, accumulating one step at a time.
In October 2022, the US imposed controls on advanced computing chips, supercomputers, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, setting process thresholds (such as logic at 16/14nm and below). In October 2023, the rules expanded again, covering more advanced AI chips and equipment and adding an advance-notification mechanism. In December 2024, 24 new categories of manufacturing equipment were added, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) was brought under control, and 140 entities were added to the list at once. In May 2025, BIS announced it was rescinding the previous, much-debated “AI diffusion rule” and would not enforce it, while foreshadowing a replacement version. The overall trend has been a steady tightening of controls on advanced chips, equipment, and memory bound for China.
2026 Latest: The H200 Moves to Case-by-Case Review
2026 brought a directional adjustment.
Starting in January 2026, some mid-tier AI chips (such as the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X, chips that fall short of the highest specs) shifted, for exports to China, from a “presumption of denial” — where applications were almost always rejected — to “case-by-case review” under strict conditions. The attached conditions are numerous, including proving that domestic US supply is sufficient, not crowding out US orders, keeping shipments to China below a certain proportion of shipments to the US, and conducting customer due diligence and third-party testing.
But two things need to be seen clearly: first, the highest-spec chips and re-exports mostly remain under strict control; and second, this narrow door comes with a heavy load of conditions and is not a green light. Separately, the US Congress is also advancing legislation that would require allies such as the Netherlands and Japan to coordinate and follow on equipment controls — but for now that is still legislation in progress, not a rule in force.
The Impact on Taiwan and the Supply Chain
Taiwan is the world’s largest chip-manufacturing base, so export controls naturally ripple through this supply chain.
Companies such as TSMC must comply with BIS rules on customer screening, product destination, and capacity allocation. But “affected” does not equal “all China revenue restricted”; in practice it depends on the product category, end use, end user, and whether the product falls within the scope of the FDPR. In addition, bringing HBM under control at the end of 2024 added destination and end-use checks to the memory and advanced-packaging chains. On the whole, export controls add a layer of compliance complexity to the supply chain, rather than a simple “banned or not banned.”
Key Takeaways for This Gate
After looking at export controls, first remember the three tools: the Entity List (naming specific recipients), the FDPR (reaching even foreign products that use US technology), and case-by-case license review (individual judgment, not a green light).
From 2022 to 2026, US controls on advanced chips and equipment to China tightened steadily; from 2026 some mid-tier chips moved to case-by-case review, a directional adjustment that comes loaded with conditions. For Taiwan, this is a layer of compliance rules on the outer edge of the supply chain, with the impact depending on the details of product and use. Understand these mechanisms, and you can follow what the related news is saying.
To see the full picture of the chip war, read the Chip War; for the geopolitical significance of Taiwan’s semiconductors, see the Silicon Shield; for Taiwan’s industrial division of labor, see Taiwan’s Semiconductor Supply Chain; to revisit all eight gates of the chain, head back to the supply-chain overview.